NWS SPC Mesoscale Discussion

SPC MD 1507

MD 1507 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR ERN-SERN MO...SWRN IL...FAR WRN KY
MD 1507 Thumbnail Image


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1507
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0501 PM CDT FRI JUL 30 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN-SERN MO...SWRN IL...FAR WRN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 302201Z - 302330Z

THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL EXISTS
WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION SPREADING EWD ACROSS ERN-SERN MO INTO
SWRN IL AND FAR WRN KY. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS EWD ACROSS CNTRL MO AND THEN
SEWD INTO SERN MO AT 21Z. HOT SURFACE AIR MASS RESIDES W OF THE
BOUNDARY...WHILE ZONE OF LOWER TO MID 70 F DEWPOINTS EXITS ALONG THE
FRONT. AS A RESULT...STRONG INSTABILITY CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG HAS DEVELOPED...WITH PRONOUNCED
INSTABILITY GRADIENT EVIDENT ALONG THE MS RIVER. ROBUST THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE DURING THE PAST HR
OR SO. IN ADDITION...SVR MCS HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF TURNING SEWD...AND
MAY CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE DOWN THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT THROUGH THE
EVENING. COMBINATION OF VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES ALONG THE
BOUNDARY OVERLAYED BY MODEST 20+ KT MID-LEVEL FLOW IS YIELDING
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AND MAINTENANCE OF CNTRL MO MCS...POSING A THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SVR HAIL.

..GARNER.. 07/30/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON   39179157 39259093 38819007 37748913 36998872 36548887
            36519023 37509152 38269178 39179157
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Glendora Random Weather Fact

DEW POINT
Dew point is the temperature to which air must be cooled for saturation (100% relative humidity) to occur. The dew point is an important measurement used to predict the formation of dew, frost, and fog. If dew point and temperature are close together in the late afternoon when the air begins to turn colder, fog is likely during the night. Dew point is also a good indicator of the air's actual water vapor content, unlike relative humidity, which takes the air's temperature into account. High dew point indicates high vapor content; low dew point indicates low vapor content. In addition a high dew point indicates a better chance of rain and severe thunderstorms. You can even use dew point to predict the minimum overnight temperature. Provided no fronts or other weather pattern changes are expected overnight, the afternoon's dew point gives you an idea of what minimum temperature to expect overnight.